Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow

“A short quiz:
If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and
are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or
lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a
car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer,
should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These
questions, of course, answer themselves. But now for the
final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the
next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower
stock market during that period? Many investors get this
one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers
of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when
stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect,
they rejoice because prices have risen for the
“hamburgers” they will soon be buying. This reaction
makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities
in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise.
Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking
prices.”

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Stocks Are Less Risky Than Bonds

It is not stock investing that is risky. It is valuation-uninformed stock investing strategies that are risky. The risks of stocks can be largely avoided by those willing to give consideration to the effect of valuations on long-term returns. It is much harder for investors to avoid the risks of bonds, since inflation is unpredictable and constitutes the biggest risk for bond investors. For the valuation-informed investor, bonds are more risky than stocks.

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Create your own retirement paycheck

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Hedgefunds selling Alpha as Beta?

In a desperate market everything seems possible.
Even selling Alpha as Beta...

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Patron saint of actuaries

St. Buster is the patron saint of actuaries.

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What is Risk?

Peter L. Berstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, explains it pretty well.  He says by definition risk is a measure of the unknown, and because of that it is silly to presume and act as if we know what the future holds.  Risk management really is understanding that the future is uncertain, and preparing ourselves and our institutions to deal with the times when things are different from our expectations.

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A survey of migration

Despite a growing backlash, the boom in migration has been mostly good for both sending and recipient countries, says Adam Roberts (interviewed here)

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